Sources indicate the Department of Justice is expected to release over 50 proposed rulemakings affecting the firearms industry in the coming weeks and months. While details remain limited, these anticipated proposals are believed to be pro-gun rights, with publication expected in batches beginning shortly after Robert Cekada is confirmed as ATF Director.
Rulemakings like these are periodically issued to provide details and functional mechanisms to implement a federal statute, though the rulemakings may not contradict the relevant statute. If accurate, the scope of this initiative would represent one of the most ambitious firearms-related regulatory agendas in recent memory. A large-scale package of rulemakings aimed at modernization, deregulation, clarification, or restoration of rights would be a significant step toward fulfillment of the administration's promise to prioritize the Second Amendment.
How the Federal Rulemaking Process Works
For rules amending ATF regulations, the process typically follows these steps:
• Publication of a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) – The proposed rule is published in the Federal Register, including a summary of the rule, a description of the purpose and rationale for the rulemaking, and a statement of the specific changes to the applicable regulations in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR).
• Public Comment Period – Interested parties (manufacturers, dealers, trade groups, consumers, attorneys, and advocacy organizations) submit comments supporting, opposing, or recommending revisions.
• Agency Review of Comments – The agency must consider significant comments and often revises the proposal as a result. Notably, the agency must provide a written response to all material, non-duplicate comments (identical or similar comments are grouped together and receive a single response from the agency).
• Final Rule Publication – A final rule is published in the Federal Register, along with the agency's responses to comments and explanations of any changes between the proposed rule and the final rule. The final rule will include the textual changes to be made in the regulations.
• Effective Date – Typically, the final rule will not be effective on the date it is published. Rather, the publication will include an effective date, often 30 to 180 days later, depending on the rule's complexity and the timing needed for implementation.
Expected Timeframe
We expect the 50+ rules to be rolled out in multiple batches. There is no fixed, overall timetable, but the rulemaking process can be slow, particularly when an agency releases multiple proposed rules at once. For example, ATF's Rule 41F, relating to NFA transfer applications, took nearly three years from the date of the proposed rule to the date the final rule became effective. The biggest variable is often the amount of time it takes for the agency to fully respond to public comments, and possibly work through changes based on those comments. An agency's failure to fully complete the rulemaking process can subject any resulting rule to challenge under the Administrative Procedures Act (APA).
Why Public Comments Will Matter
Based on what we're hearing, the administration is genuinely trying to make good on campaign promises to support the Second Amendment. But the executive agencies rely on guidance and expertise from the industry. Constructive comments from those who understand how the regulations actually function in practice, and where the real pressure points lie, will be critical to ensuring such a massive regulatory rewrite functions as intended (and without unintended consequences).
A Realistic but Positive Outlook
Publishing 50+ separate proposals would be an aggressive undertaking by any administration. Moving that many rules from concept to final implementation will require substantial agency manpower, legal review, economic analysis, and political discipline.
Not every proposal will be finalized. Some may be delayed, revised, consolidated, or challenged. As we saw with the "pistol brace rule," even final rules may not withstand judicial challenges. But the scale of the expected effort is encouraging for those who support regulatory reform and stronger respect for Second Amendment rights.